Economy in Central Oregon

All Central Oregon counties have fully recovered from job losses in 2020, and are heading into expansionary growth passing their pre-pandemic peaks. Deschutes’ and Jefferson’s employment grew by 2.6% (2,320 jobs) and 3.9% (220), respectively, over the last 12 months. Both rates are healthy, but slower than Oregon’s job growth rate of 5.0%. Crook’s employment continues to grow quickly, adding 490 jobs over the past 12 months, a rate of 7.8%.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Oregon sat essentially unchanged in June at 3.6%. Oregon’s unemployment has remained below 4.0% for the past four months, nearly reaching Oregon’s record low of 3.4% which occurred in November 2019 through February 2020. The three Central Oregon county’s unemployment rates also remained essentially unchanged. Crook edged down to 4.7% (lowest monthly rate ever is 4.7%), Deschutes stayed at 3.4% (3.3%), and Jefferson sits at 4.6% (4.4%).

Topic of the Month: Job Openings in Oregon

The seasonally adjusted Oregon nonfarm job openings rate ticked down in the past few months where it currently sits at 6.6 percent in May 2022, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The near full percentage point drop from March 2022 (7.5%) indicates that the job market is starting to loosen. However, the labor market is still tight as the job openings rate is still a percentage point higher than the pre-pandemic rate (5.5% in February 2020). Additionally, there are fewer unemployed workers than job openings. Oregon had an estimated 126,000 job openings compared to 67,032 unemployed workers in May 2022.

There have been some concerns that the U.S. and Oregon economies are currently in a recession, but the strong labor market does not show signs of an imminent downturn.

Good Reads

“How Unpredictable Schedules Widen the Gender Pay Gap” by Valentin Bolotnyy and Natalia Emanuel, Harvard Business Review.

“The Great Attrition is making hiring harder. Are you searching the right talent pools?” by Aaron De Smet, Bonnie Dowling, Bryan Hancock and Bill Schaninger, McKinsey & Company.

“Priced Out Oregon Households” by Josh Lehner, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.

“Do Unemployment Insurance Benefits Improve Match Quality? Evidence from Recent U.S. Recessions” by Ammar Farooq, Adriana Kugler and Umberto Muratori, Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

Questions? Contact: Jake Procino, Workforce Analyst/Economist, Oregon Employment Department