Economy in Central Oregon

All Central Oregon counties have fully recovered from job losses in 2020, and are in expansionary growth passing their pre-pandemic peaks. Over the 12-month span ending in July, Deschutes’ and Jefferson’s nonfarm payroll employment grew by 0.7% (670 jobs) and 2.8% (180), respectively. Both rates are healthy, but slower than Oregon’s rate of 3.4%. Crook’s employment continues to grow quickly, adding 580 jobs over the same period, a rate of 8.2%.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Oregon sat essentially unchanged in July at 3.5%. Oregon’s unemployment has remained below 4.0% for the past four months, nearly reaching Oregon’s record low of 3.4%, which occurred in November 2019 through February 2020. The three Central Oregon county’s unemployment rates also remained essentially unchanged. Crook’s unemployment rate stayed low at 4.7% (matching its lowest monthly rate ever of 4.7%), Deschutes’ at 3.5% (3.3%) and Jefferson’s at 4.6% (4.4%).

Topic of the Month: Economic Scarring

Job loss tends to result in a negative impact on a worker’s long-term earnings. However, the pandemic recession seems to have reversed that trend in Oregon. Oregon workers who lost a job in the second quarter of 2020 tended to have notable wage gains when they reentered the workforce, at least in the short-term. The real median hourly wage for 2020 unemployment insurance (UI) claimants in Oregon rose by $2.71 per hour (13% increase), roughly 18 months after their job displacements.

The 2020 cohort’s wage gains exceeded the gains across the total Oregon workforce during the same timeframe, who saw a real gain of $0.72 per hour (3%), and were stronger than a comparison group from 2016. Oregon added jobs at the fasted pace of the last economic expansion in 2015-2016, but 2016 UI claimants’ median wage decreased by $0.27 per hour (-1%) below their pre-unemployment earnings roughly 18 months after job displacement.

For more information, check out the new report from the Oregon Employment Department, “The Re-Employment of Oregon.”

Good Reads

“The Re-Employment of Oregon” by the Oregon Employment Department.

“The effects of debt relief on the student loan market” by Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

“Pace of Climate Change Sends Economists Back to Drawing Board” by Lydia DePillis, The New York Times.

“States Can Improve Efforts to Assist Their Most Distressed Regions and Neighborhoods” by Tim Bartik and Jeff Chapman, The Pew Charitable Trusts.